Heat Pumps Remain HVAC’s Growth Story in Latest AHRI Shipment Data

Nationwide sales figures for heating and cooling equipment show heat pumps continuing their steady climb, even as the broader market sends mixed signals. New industry data covering May 2026 shows heat pump shipments up 2.3% from May 2025, and 8.4% above May 2024 levels. Regular air conditioners jumped even more, up 10.2% year over year, as manufacturers ramped up for summer. Heat pumps work as both a heater and air conditioner in one unit, and they remain one of the only equipment categories to show sustained growth over the past 16 years.

The picture for gas furnaces is weaker. Gas warm-air furnace shipments fell 6.3% compared to last May, continuing a softer trend for gas heating equipment this year. Oil furnaces, a small but steady niche mostly used in the Northeast, actually grew 12.2% for the month. Water heaters also slipped: both gas and electric storage models saw shipments decline from a year earlier, though electric units still outsold gas ones overall.

Zooming out, the long-term trend is stark. Since 2010, May heat pump shipments have more than doubled, while gas furnace shipments have swung up and down without a clear direction. None of this changes what any single household needs to do, but it does reflect a broader shift toward heat pumps and electric equipment in the wider HVAC market, a trend worth keeping in mind if you're weighing options the next time your own furnace, air conditioner, or water heater needs replacing.