Cooling Equipment Rebounds in Q2 as Heat Pumps Continue to Climb

New industry data shows heating and cooling equipment shipments picked up in June 2026, and heat pumps keep gaining ground. Combined air conditioner and heat pump shipments rose nearly 22% compared to a weak June 2025, though volumes still trailed June 2024. Heat pumps alone were up over 15%, continuing a steady climb that's held since 2010. Gas furnace shipments also rose in June, though they remain down for the year overall, while gas and electric water heater shipments were mixed.

The bigger story is how the mix of equipment has shifted over time. A decade ago, air conditioners made up about 71% of combined cooling shipments; now they're down to 59%, with heat pumps taking the rest. Heat pumps do double duty, providing both heating and cooling in one unit, which is part of why they've grown even as traditional gas furnace shipments have declined this year. Major manufacturers, including Lennox, Trane, and Carrier, also reported improving residential sales, saying homeowners are leaning toward full replacements rather than repairs as older systems wear out.

None of this changes what's available for any single home, but it does reflect a broader shift already underway: heat pumps are becoming a more common replacement choice than they used to be, even in markets that still rely heavily on gas heat. If your own furnace or air conditioner is aging, this trend is part of the backdrop you'll run into when comparing replacement options.