Heat pump sizing
How to calculate heating load and choose the right capacity. Manual J basics for homeowners.
How heat pump sizing fits in
A heat pump moves heat instead of generating it, making it 2-4x more efficient than a furnace or boiler. In heating mode it extracts heat from outdoor air (even at sub-zero temperatures with cold-climate models) and delivers it inside. In cooling mode it reverses, functioning as an air conditioner. Modern cold-climate heat pumps maintain full heating capacity below -15°F, making them viable as the sole heating source in every US climate zone when paired with adequate insulation and air sealing.
This page is part of our heat pumps guide, written by people who install this stuff for a living. For the full picture — costs, sizing, and every rebate that applies — start from the heat pumps overview.
What does it cost?
Typical installed costs before rebates. Your actual cost depends on home size, accessibility, and local labor rates.
| Type | Low | High | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ductless mini-split (single zone) | $3,500 | $6,000 | Installed. Most common residential upgrade. |
| Multi-zone ductless (3-4 heads) | $10,000 | $18,000 | Whole-home coverage without ductwork. |
| Ducted central heat pump | $12,000 | $25,000 | Replaces existing furnace + AC. Requires ductwork. |
| Ground-source (geothermal) | $25,000 | $50,000 | Highest efficiency, highest upfront cost. 3-5x COP. |
More on heat pumps
Heat pump costs
What to expect for equipment, installation, and operating costs by system type and climate zone.
Heat pump rebates
State and utility rebates for heat pump installations, plus IRA HEAR funding where states have launched it.
Cold climate heat pumps
Which models work below 0°F, field performance data from northern states, and sizing for cold climates.
Mini-splits explained
Ductless mini-split systems: how they work, where to place them, single vs. multi-zone, and installation basics.
Heat pump vs. furnace
Side-by-side comparison of operating costs, efficiency, comfort, and environmental impact.
Costs are step one
Once you know what it costs, here's how the rest of the project goes.