Heat pump vs furnace: what will you pay to run it?
The honest answer depends on your fuel and your electricity rate. Here's the math at current national prices — and the formula to run it with yours.
Who wins depends on what you burn now
Against oil, propane, or electric baseboard, a heat pump is decisively cheaper to run — often by half or more. Against natural gas it's a real contest: at national average prices an efficient gas furnace still edges out a heat pump on fuel cost alone, and the winner flips with your local rates, your climate, and how tight your house is.
That nuance is the whole story. Anyone who tells you heat pumps always (or never) save money is skipping the arithmetic — so let's do it.
Cost per million BTU, at 2026 national prices
One million BTU (MMBtu) is a common yardstick of delivered heat — a typical northern home uses 50–100 MMBtu per winter.
| Heating system | $ / MMBtu delivered | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|
| Heat pump (seasonal COP 2.0–2.6) | $21–$28 | COP band per installed-costs.md §12; the colder the climate, the lower the seasonal COP |
| Natural gas furnace (80–95% AFUE) | $14–$20 | at $1.35–$1.57/therm heating-season average |
| Propane furnace (80–90% AFUE) | $32–$37 | at $2.674/gal |
| Oil boiler/furnace (80–85% AFUE) | $47–$50 | at $5.535/gal |
| Electric resistance (baseboard, strips) | $55 | COP = 1 by definition; every heat pump beats this |
Prices: EIA national residential averages — electricity 18.83¢/kWh (Apr 2026), natural gas $1.35–$1.57/therm (2025–26 heating season), heating oil $5.535/gal and propane $2.674/gal (Mar 2026, the season's final weekly readings). Your rates vary — New England electricity, for instance, averages 29.49¢/kWh, which raises the heat pump's number by more than half. Run your own rates below.
The formula, so you can plug in your own bills
- Heat pump: (your ¢/kWh ÷ 100) × 293 ÷ COP
- Gas furnace: your $/therm × 10 ÷ AFUE
- Oil: your $/gal × 7.22 ÷ AFUE
- Propane: your $/gal × 10.93 ÷ AFUE
Use seasonal COP 2.2–2.6 for a standard climate and 2.0–2.4 for a cold one; AFUE is on your furnace's label (80–95%). The constants convert each fuel's energy content into millions of BTU.
Four things that move the answer
Climate
Colder air means lower COP hours. Cold-climate models hold up far better — see which ones and how — but a Minnesota winter and a Virginia winter produce different seasonal averages.
Your envelope
A sealed, insulated house needs fewer BTUs, full stop — the cheapest million BTU is the one you don't buy. Envelope first is how marginal heat pump math becomes clear-win math.
Electricity plan
Time-of-use rates, heat pump tariffs some utilities offer, and community solar credits all lower the effective ¢/kWh — sometimes enough to flip the gas comparison.
Dual-fuel setups
Keeping the gas furnace as below-freezing backup lets the heat pump run only in its most efficient range. It's a common cheap-gas compromise — with the caveat that some rebate programs require full replacement.
The comparison isn't only about fuel
A heat pump also replaces your air conditioner — if yours is near end of life, the comparison is really "heat pump vs furnace plus AC," which changes the installed-cost side of the ledger. For the full qualitative picture — comfort, efficiency, lifespan, emissions — see our heat pump vs furnace comparison. For what the systems cost to install, start with what drives heat pump installation prices and check your size assumptions with the sizing calculator.
Operating cost questions
Is it cheaper to run a heat pump or a gas furnace?
At national average prices it's close: roughly $21–$28 per million BTU for a heat pump versus $14–$20 for an efficient gas furnace. Cheap gas plus expensive electricity favors the furnace; average-or-better electricity rates, a tight envelope, or time-of-use plans tip it to the heat pump. Against oil, propane, or electric baseboard, the heat pump wins decisively.
Do heat pumps use a lot of electricity?
They use electricity efficiently — that's the point. A heat pump moves 2 to 3 units of heat per unit of electricity (COP 2–3), so it delivers the same heat as electric baseboard for less than half the kWh. Your total electric bill rises, but your oil, propane, or gas bill falls to zero for the load it takes over.
Why is my heat pump bill so high?
The usual culprits: backup resistance strips running more than they should, deep nighttime thermostat setbacks that trigger those strips every morning, an undersized or poorly installed system, or a leaky envelope forcing long run times. A properly sized cold-climate unit in a reasonably tight house shouldn't need much resistance backup.
Is a heat pump worth it if my gas is cheap?
On operating cost alone, maybe not yet — do the math with your own rates using the formula on this page. But the comparison rarely stays still: a heat pump also replaces your air conditioner, rebates can cut the install cost substantially, and envelope work shifts the math further. Many households in cheap-gas regions install one anyway for the cooling and keep the furnace as backup.
Fuel prices move — get the updated math each season
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