Without stronger government action, Brazil’s low deforestation in the Amazon is unlikely to last

This story is about deforestation in Brazil, not home energy upgrades, so there's no direct connection to your house or rebates. Here's what happened, in plain terms.

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon recently hit its lowest level in a decade, a result credited to President Lula's environmental policies since 2023. But researchers warn that progress may not last. In January, several major agrifood companies dropped out of the Amazon Soy Moratorium, a voluntary agreement that had blocked companies from buying soy grown on land cleared after July 2008. That pact had been highly effective at curbing forest clearing for soy farming. A new study published in the journal Science estimates the Amazon could lose 1.4 million hectares of forest over the next decade now that the agreement has fallen apart.

Adding to the concern, JBS, the world's largest meat producer, recently abandoned its own pledge to reach net-zero deforestation by 2040. Researchers say the underlying economic incentives to clear land for farming and ranching haven't gone away, and Brazil's existing forest protection law hasn't stopped illegal clearing on a significant share of soy farms. Meanwhile, Colombia has passed a new law requiring more tracking of where cattle are raised, aimed at keeping beef supply chains free of illegally deforested land.

With Lula facing reelection against a candidate from a family known for weaker environmental enforcement, experts quoted in the piece say recent gains could be reversed without stronger government policy to back them up.