Netherlands Cuts 2040 Hydrogen Forecast By Almost 60%

The Netherlands has sharply scaled back how much hydrogen it expects to use by 2040, cutting its forecast by more than half compared to a 2023 estimate. The government's updated energy plan now points to electricity, not hydrogen, as the backbone of the future energy system, with electricity expected to supply 52% of final energy by 2040, up from about 25% today. That shift comes as heat pumps, electric vehicles, and electric industrial equipment increasingly outcompete hydrogen on cost. The plan assumes 71% to 88% of road travel will be electrified depending on vehicle type, and about 64% of Dutch households will use electric or hybrid heat pumps.

For homeowners, the relevant takeaway is less about hydrogen and more about what's replacing it: heat pumps and electrification are winning out because they're cheaper and more practical than hydrogen for heating homes and buildings. The plan explicitly concludes hydrogen is too expensive to serve as an alternative to electrification for home and low-temperature heating. Renewable hydrogen costs cited in the plan run around €6.70 to €6.80 per kilogram for 2040, and recent European auction bids averaged near €9.80 per kilogram — both far above earlier estimates, reinforcing why hydrogen isn't likely to show up as a home heating option.

This is Dutch national planning, not a U.S. program change, so it doesn't affect rebates or incentives directly. But it reflects a broader pattern also playing out elsewhere: heat pumps and electric equipment are increasingly seen as the practical, lower-cost path for home heating, while hydrogen remains mostly confined to industrial uses like chemicals and refining.