Forecasting domestic U.S. module production to the end of 2027

This is an inside look at how U.S. solar panel manufacturing is expected to grow through the end of 2027, based on detailed tracking of more than 40 companies rather than just adding up announced factory plans, which tend to overstate what's really coming. Analysts expect total module production to hit record levels, but the picture varies a lot company by company. Some, like First Solar, already have long-term supply commitments lined up. Others are new to manufacturing or focused only on smaller rooftop and commercial jobs rather than big projects. That means finding a steady, secure supply of American-made panels for large projects in the 2028-2030 period could be hit or miss depending on which company you're dealing with.

A big wildcard is what happens with imported solar cells (the components inside panels) once new trade rules under "Section 232" take effect in December. Many U.S. module makers still plan to keep buying cells from overseas and assembling them domestically, since building new cell factories here takes one to two years and significant upfront money. That means 2027, the first full year under the new trade rules, could actually bring record numbers of imported solar cells, even as domestic panel assembly ramps up.

For homeowners, this doesn't change anything immediately. It's a forecast about the broader manufacturing and supply landscape, not a program or rebate. But it suggests that "made in the USA" solar panels will keep depending heavily on imported parts for at least the next couple of years, which could affect pricing and availability down the road.