EV Sales At 32% — No, Make That 38%! — By 2030

A new Harvard study offers a surprisingly upbeat forecast for electric vehicles, even after the $7,500 federal tax credit for EV buyers ended last year. Researchers at Harvard's Salata Institute first estimated that EVs would make up 32% of new vehicle sales by 2030, then revised that up to 38%. That's well below the 48% share they'd expect if older, more EV-friendly federal policies were still in place, but it's still a big jump from last year's 8%.

The tax credit's loss, eliminated through Trump's tax law, is the single biggest reason EV sales growth is slower than it could have been. But researchers found other Trump-era rollbacks mattered less than expected. Rising gas prices, tied to conflicts in Iran and Russia, are pushing some drivers toward EVs regardless of the tax credit. Meanwhile, EV batteries have gotten better and cheaper, public charging stations have expanded, and more mainstream brands, including Toyota and Subaru, have added EV models. Ford is also preparing an electric pickup priced under $30,000.

None of this changes what's available to homeowners right now, but it suggests EVs are likely to become a more common sight in driveways over the next few years regardless of federal incentives. If you're weighing a home charging setup or considering how an EV might fit with a solar or electrical upgrade, this points to EVs sticking around and becoming more mainstream, even without the old tax credit to sweeten the deal.