China solar down 29%, everywhere else up 15%

Global solar installation forecasts for 2026 have shifted, driven almost entirely by a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China. Analysts at BloombergNEF now expect 584 gigawatts (GW) of solar installed worldwide next year, down nearly 11% from 2025's 655 GW. China alone is projected to install 271 GW in 2026, a 29% drop from 383 GW this year. Through the first half of 2026, China's installations were already down about 66% compared to the same period in 2025. Analysts attribute this to market saturation after years of rapid growth, plus a policy shift: China's new five-year plan is putting more emphasis on battery storage and less on adding new solar capacity.

Outside China, the picture looks different. The rest of the world is on track to install around 313 GW in 2026, slightly ahead of earlier predictions and about 13% higher than 2025. Growth is coming from countries like India, the Philippines, Nigeria and Malaysia, with analysts noting that in Nigeria and the Philippines, nearly all of that growth is residential and commercial solar, not large utility projects.

For homeowners, none of this points to any new program, rebate, or price change for your own roof. It mainly shows where the solar industry's momentum is heading globally: away from massive Chinese utility-scale projects and toward smaller residential and commercial installations in other countries, alongside a broader industry shift toward pairing solar with battery storage.